Week 9 in the NFL, where the real teams begin to separate and the predictive data really becomes valuable.
That said, you won't survive long-term doing some of the things we're about to do this week, but it's fun to pick your spots.
Let's get into it!
O 3.5 Receptions +100
2 Touchdowns +800
Crazy that they're giving us plus odds on this one considering how hot Tonyan has been. There aren't many guys Rodgers trusts anymore in the passing game, but Tonyan may be at the top of his list.
Lions opponents score a touchdown 73% of the time they get into the red zone, third highest rate in the league.
Any Time TD +140
I wanted to write about De'Andre Swift this week, I really did. But when I watched his carries from week 8, it was not encouraging.
Jamaal Williams is the red zone option for the Lions.
I'd claim a revenge narrative, but Jamaal is one of the nicest guys in the world.
Terry McLaurin Longest Reception
O 25.5 Yards -115
Anecdotally, it's like every time I see Heinicke pop up on Red Zone, he's lofting one down the sideline to McLaurin on 3rd and 15.
Statistically, McLaurin has cruised over this number in three of his last four games with receptions of 34, 17, 37, and 42
U 24.5 Pass Attempts -124
U 180.5 Passing Yards -122
This number is a bit inflated because Mariota did have to throw last week...and I'm sure coach Smith hated all 28 passes.
This week, there's no need because the Chargers are too injured to pull away, and the run defense is garbage.
This is likely to be a classic Falcons game where they run to set up the run so they can run in the second half.
O 65.5 Rec Yds -114
96 Rec Yds +177
The Rams play a lot of soft zone coverage, and Godwin eats that up 14 yards at a time. Will anybody be surprised if Godwin puts together a 10-catch day subsidizing the sad Tampa run game?
Rondale Moore O 4.5 Receptions -124
Until Seattle learns how to stop a slot WR from doing what he wants, I'll keep playing slots vs the Seahawks.
Rondale is no stranger to the props article, you knew he'd be here this week.
He saw ten targets vs Seattle a couple of weeks ago.
O 5.5 Receptions +102
125 Rec Yds +530
Lockett had a full practice, so it looks good for him considering his history vs Arizona. In 2020, he put up 200 yards and 3 TDs in the desert.
Last year, he scored twice.
Also, Byron Murphy is no joke. He's kept Davante Adams and DJ Moore in check, so he may be able to challenge Metcalf.
Joe Mixon U 67.5 Rush Yds -113
Since Chase left with injury, defenses have been willing to play a single-high safety and move one down to play the run. The Bengals aren't a premier run offense to begin with, and now they sort of need Mixon to pitch in with receiving work and he has.
He's on pace for over 70 receptions which would smash his career high by about 30.
But he's not running the ball effectively.
Jeff Wilson Jr O TBD Rush Yds
I think Raheem Mostert is getting worn out. He's at 100 carries right now, he's never gone over 137 in a season.
If these cowardly books post a line, take the over. If they post "at least" props, I'll be taking up to 50 rush yards.
Wilson was brought in because he knows the system so he's plug-and-play.
We could see more Wilson than we expected on Sunday.
Justin Jefferson O 87.5 Rec Yds -114
He's already gone over 100 yards in a game four times, five if you count the 98 last week. You can't keep a player like Jefferson bottled up like this with two-month gaps between scores.
He's due for a multi-touchdown game.
Based on how much the team loves putting diamond necklaces on Kirk after wins, it stands to reason they want to put on a show for his return to D.C.
Justin Jefferson 2 TDs +500
First Drive Score Parlay: Colts NO / Patriots NO +103
In the past three games, Indy is averaging zero first-quarter points and New England is averaging two.
Touchdown Round Robin
I tried this with the Philly RBs on Thursday and it worked out, so now I'm hooked. We find three players we like to score at decent odds and create 3 two-team parlays.
I've hand-selected three organic & locally sourced high-usage tight ends
Tonyan / Ertz +750
Ertz / Engram +1000
Tonyan / Engram +850
And just for fun
Tonyan / Ertz / Engram +2900
These don't come out until late Saturday, so you'll have to check back for the odds.
Tariq Woolen Interception
If you don't know Tariq Woolen, you will soon.
He just won Defensive Rookie of The Month, he's tied for the NFL lead in picks with four, and the dude allows a whole 50.2 passer rating.
Kyler's gonna throw him one
Stephon Gilmore Interception
Mac Jones zeroes in on Jakobi Meyers quite often. In four Mac Jones starts, Meyers has seen over a dozen targets twice.
You can't throw a dozen times at Stephon Gilmore and get away with it, especially if you're a Mac Jones.
Chris Jones Sack
Jones is the highest-graded interior lineman in the NFL. The Titans are allowing a sack on 15% of pass plays in their last three games, the worst in the NFL by far. The unstoppable force meets the movable object here.
Matthew Judon 2 Sacks
It's the 30th-ranked offensive line playing inexplicably badly, lined up against the NFL sacks leader with a rookie quarterback behind them.
Von Miller 2 Sacks +400
This Jets line can't protect, and Zach Wilson can't get that through his head.
This kid is going to hold the ball for 3.8 seconds in the pocket, and his 37-year-old left tackle with a bad shoulder is not going to be able to hold Von Miller off for more than like, two seconds.
That's just math.
Thank you for your support of Patriot Sports, good luck with your wagers and all your endeavors!
Some different stuff this week, you never know where the value may be. Shoutout Derrick Henry for turning a sub .500 week profitable hitting the 16 to one. 7-9-2 last week brings us to 55-38-2