Week 8 NFL Props
Week eight already? How?! Best to make the most of these games, I found a bunch of prop bets for us this week. Let's get into it!
Wan'Dale Robinson O 4.5 Receptions +114 / O 42.5 Rec Yds -113
Robinson is the most talented and explosive WR on this team. Toney is gone and Bellinger took a shot to the orbital bone that required surgery (get well soon) leaving Wan'Dale and Saquon as the close-to-the-line options. There is also the fact that Seattle can't defend the slot.
Love the plus odds.
cbssports.com
Rondale Moore O 40.5 Rec Yds -109
Now that Robby Anderson is in town, Rondale will be free to move back to his natural position in the slot. He's gone over this number in two of his last three, he should get the work because they'll need to score.
With three starters out from the offensive line, the ball will need to come out quickly to short targets like Rondale Moore.
Saquon Barkley O 27.5 Rec Yds -113
Another thing this Seahawks defense has problems with are pass-catching backs. Seattle is bottom three in yards, receptions, and EPA per play against backs like Saquon.
Now they're facing actual Saquon.
DJ Moore O 5.5 Receptions +110 / O 60.5 Rec Yds -114
He's been unlocked! All it took was CMC leaving town to make DJ Moore relevant once again. It should come as no surprise, he's averaged five receptions and 73 yards in games McCaffrey missed. He saw ten targets last week, and with the beaten up Atlanta secondary, it's likely we see something similar here.
Gabe Davis O 57.5 Rec Yds / 87 Rec Yds +150
Davis is matching up with Eric Stokes; on paper, this is not a fair fight. Looking at the schedule, Stokes hasn't faced anybody of his caliber yet this season.
The Bills win home games by an average of 34.5 points, that math says Gabe Davis catches some bombs. Jaire has some experience with Diggs, so Davis vs Stokes could be easier to exploit.
Davis is a big play guy, so let's stick with yards since he could get them all on one ball.
Will Dissly O 24.5 Rec Yds -113
This is just a game of "which TE will it be" and Dissly jumped to 76% of snaps as of last week. We got burned by Noah Fant last time, but I think with the Giants corners focused on Lockett, the 31-year-old Marquise Goodwin can't do it all. There's plenty of room for the big guy from Montana.
It's two catches. He can do that.
Mike Gesicki O 25.5 Rec Yds -118 / Any Time TD +240
He's on the trading block, this could be something of a showcase game. The Lions allow almost six catches for over 60 yards per game to the position. Add in the 26th-ranked red zone defense, and all the makings of a Gesicki game are there.
Zach Wilson U 28.5 Pass Attempts -126
I don't love paying -126 but this is like the Mariota prop last week. Yes, Breece Hall is out but that doesn't mean the kid is going to put the ball in the air 30 times against Belichick.
Derrick Henry 161 Rush Yds & 2 TDs +1600
It's that time of year again when Derrick Henry transforms into the unstoppable force, so this isn't as crazy as you think. Check out Henry's last few versus the mighty Texans of Houston:
34 carries for 250 yards and 2 TD
22 carries for 212 yards (holy shit, ten per carry?!) and 2 TD
32 carries for 211 yards and 3 TD
Kenneth Walker II O 82.5 Rush Yds -114
The Giants are the worst in the NFL when it comes to getting push or stifling running backs. By that I mean when a back takes a handoff against this Giants defense, he has an average of 2.5 yards to travel before any contact at all. Kenneth Walker with a head of steam is a problem.
Travon Walker O 0.5 Sacks +125
I don't have much data to back this angle. I am however convinced that after the plane ride to London, one of these linemen is going to step aside and let Walker through to Russell Wilson just once, whether consciously or subconsciously
Jaguars NO Score on 1st Drive + Broncos NO Score on 1st Drive Parlay +101
Any time the Broncos and this borderline historical defense face a sub-par offense, I think this is a good play. We cashed last week in the Jets/Broncos game, let's go back to the well.
Raiders v Saints Longest TD O 39.5 Yds +100
Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in completions over 40 yards, New Orleans with eight, and Vegas with five. Lattimore is still out, therefore, wheels still up vs this secondary. Olave, Adams, Hollins, Kamara...don't matter who, we're covered.
Seahawks 1H / Giants Final Double Result +650
We found a discrepancy! Seattle is averaging over 16 points in the first quarter alone and over 17 the last three games. The Giants average just 7.6 first quarter points on average.
In the second half, the Giants score the 4th most points whereas the Seahawks score the 19th most second half points.
Think about the Giants games you've watched this season, they come back late and win. Giving us +650 is insane.
I'm also going to bet
Seattle Seahawks Win1st Quarter +110
See above.
Bengals / Browns Total 1st Downs O 39.5 -106
Both teams are in the top five in regards to first downs, each averaging 22.4 first downs per game. My math says that puts us over by five or six.
Best of luck in your wagers and all of your endeavors!
12-9 last week brings us to 48-29 on the season. Turns out a one-game sample size wasn't enough to figure out Heinicke. Shoutout Zeke for saving the weekend.