Week 7 NFL Props
Week seven. Some are calling it a down week, even using adjectives like "gross".
How dare you speak of professional tackle football in such a negative light is what we'd say to them if we gave them another thought.
Let's get into it!
Taylor Heinicke O 13.5 Rush Yds -117 / 25+ Rush Yds +125
This kid is mobile, he's going to run. Heinicke played Green Bay once before, and he ran ten times for 95 yards. Feel free to play this up to 35 yards, honestly.
JD McKissic O 20.5 Rec Yds -112
McKissic is an excellent safety valve for an inexperienced QB. The dump-off is a proven high-percentage play. It's good enough for Tom Brady, it's good enough for Taylor Heinicke. I think McKissic can get there in 2 or 3 targets.
Kenneth Walker O 67.5 Rush Yds -124 / 98 Rush Yds +225
Fresh legs vs one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, plus Walker is legit. The Chargers struggle mightily to cover the edge run, Walker can turn the corner, and I'm sure Pete Carroll has been watching film and chomping his gum in anticipation all week long.
Joe Mixon O 21.5 Rec Yds
This line has been coming together in recent weeks like a fine pot of skyline chili. Mixon has underperformed thus far, but I think that turns around starting right now with some increased pass-catching work.
Six targets last week, I think we see 5-7 more this week.
Brandin Cooks O 61.5 Rec Yds - 114 / O 5.5 Receptions -108
Death, taxes, Brandin Cooks target share. The Raiders are terrible vs the quarterback, and by extension, his number-one target. Vegas is going to score, and Houston will need to throw.
Rashaad White O 16.5 Rec Yds
Brady went to the youngster on a critical 4th & 1 last week vs Pittsburgh, so he has the trust. His targets are ticking up week by week, two or three receptions are well within the realm here and it's only 17 yards that we need.
Cade Otten O 29.5 Rec Yds
Brady loves a tight end, and he knows he'll need one down the stretch so it's time to get Otten involved. Yardage totals recently: 29, 43, 23
Robert Tonyan O 31.5 Rec Yds -115
Last week was no fluke, Rodgers needs help and he needs it badly. Tonyan is a trusted target. Huge game last week with 10 for 90 on 12 targets, he could see close to ten targets once again.
Dalton Schultz O 3.5 Receptions +120
Plus 120? PLUS 120?!
Thank you very much. Dak has an injured hand, Schultz is a proven go-to guy for him...I feel like I'm missing something here.
In the running for favorite prop of the week.
Evan Engram O 29.5 Rec Yds -115 / Any Time TD +250
Doug Pederson is a player's coach. He's the kind of guy who would give Evan Engram ample opportunity to show out against his old team, the Giants.
There's definitely a red zone play or two drawn up for him.
The vet TE has been involved all season, and16 targets in the past two weeks are just the encouragement we need here.
Zeke Elliott O 64.5 Rush Yds / Any Time TD +120 / 2 TD +850
Tony Pollard Any Time TD +179
Six yards per carry last week against Philly, it seems like Zeke is hitting his stride. He's cleared 64.5 rush yards in three of the last four games.
The angle here though is the Lions run defense. They have only played five games, and the defense has already allowed ten rushing touchdowns.
If we play both, I think we at least go 1-1
Marcus Mariota U 27.5 Pass Attempts -114
I honestly don't know what to make of this. The Falcons are running an offense similar to that of a service academy. I understand they'll likely be trailing, but Mariota is not putting the ball in the air 28 times. No.
It would be the first time since week 1, and it would go against the entire offensive philosophy of the team.
Bengals vs Falcons Longest TD O 39.5 Yards +100
The Atlanta secondary is beaten up, Burrow will be able to bomb it deep. Why play Chase specifically when we can get coverage for any player on either team for even money?
Broncos NO Score on 1st Drive + Jets NO Score on 1st Drive Parlay -112
The odds for each are too big to play, but if you parlay them together...it's a standard prop price. Let's throw that in the cart on the way out, why not.
Best of luck to you with your wagers and all other endeavors!
13-7 last week brings us to 36-20 on the season. I knew Rhamondre was a trap last week and I went ahead anyway. I'll be sharper next time