• Eric

Week 6 NFL Props

Updated: Oct 15

Playing with house money this week, but we don't rest on our lourels mostly because we don't know what lourels are.

Let's get into it, Happy TE Week!



George Pickens O 44.5 Rec Yds -117 / O 4.5 Rec +125


We must do it just out of respect for what this man did for us last week. The total is only up by one reception and the average yardage for that reception.

Not even close to enough.

Plus odds on the receptions again? Sounds good!



Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images



Robert Tonyan O 21.5 Rec Yds -114


After a tough loss against Dan Jones and the Giants, this should be a "back to basics" game for Green Bay with the trusted vets involved heavily. Rodgers has a taped-up thumb which may lead to more short targets than usual.

You don't have to be that accurate to hit Big Bob Tonyan.

He's cleared this number in all but one game this season.



@RobTonJr / Twitter



Breece Hall O 12.5 Carries -126 / O 59.5 Rush Yds -114


I guess the books haven't learned. Copy and paste from last week. Hall has established himself as the alpha he was drafted to be, this number is a joke and I'm comfortable playing it up to 15.


Daniel Bellinger O 21.5 Rec Yds -114


This is a tight end who is catching on in an offense that would love to use him. Bellinger has been good to us lately, and the number is the same once again. It's not broken...


Will Dissly O 19.5 Rec Yds -114 / Any Time TD +300


Dissly is in the scripted plays to open the game seemingly every week and he's cleared 20 yards in every game he's played, usually with ease. He's scored in two of three games played with this shockingly efficient Seahawks offense.



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David Njoku U 3.5 Rec +100


David Njoku has been tearing it up! One could call it a resurgence had there ever been a surge. Last 3 games, he's caught 9, 5, and 6 balls. So why is this number 3.5? What's going on in New England?



I'll tell you what's going on in New England: Bill Belichick showered David Njoku with compliments. Quote:

"After Ozzie Newsome, probably the best tight end the Browns have ever had."


Translation:



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Kyle Juszczyk O 8.5 Rec Yds -120 / 19+ rec yards +114


This is just fun, I love a bet where you only need one. Here are his last three games:

1 reception for 24 yards, 1 for 35, and 2 for 27 yards.

Running backs have caught 29 of 35 targets for 199 yards so far this year vs Atlanta.


AJ Dillon O 11.5 Carries -108


Yes, he only got six last week but that was out of the ordinary. In the three games leading up to London, the mayor of Door County saw 18, 12, and 17 rush opportunities.

LaFleur knows he fucked up, and he'll make it right.


Tyler Boyd O 44.5 Rec Yds -113


The second wideout vs New Orleans is a favorite play for me because you get Not Lattimore, who isn't nearly as good as Actual Lattimore, which tends to funnel targets that way. This is how we played Lockett last week, and with Higgins out, it's how we'll play Boyd this week.

When he's called on, Boyd shows up.


Rondale Moore O 5.5 Rec +127


I think it's 5.5 because they don't want us to take it. Rondale looks healthy, and he wants to keep playing when D Hop returns, so we can expect maximum effort. Receptions are preferable to yards because he catches so many behind the line.

The Seahawks are pathetic against slot receivers, it will be a sweat but we'll get there.



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Christian McCaffrey O 6.5 Rec +147


They're starting to figure it out down there that the running back can catch a little bit. Nine and 12 targets the past two weeks.

A new coach stepping in, and the most obvious thing in the world to get this offense moving is to give CMC the ball and stand back.

I don't like the 4.5 line because I think this either goes under or approaches double digits.


Rhamondre Stevenson O 82.5 Rush Yds -114

The Patriots can't surprise us too much this week regarding who gets carries, there are only two healthy backs. Belichick hates two teams in the NFL and one is the Cleveland Browns.

The most demoralizing loss is one where you're relentlessly beaten in the run game.



Kyler Murray O 26.5 Rush Yds -114


Kliff Kingsbury is an idiot, this game shapes up to be high scoring, and when the chips are down...Kyler knows he can run like a gymnast who is also a track star, and he does.

He's rushed for 26 or more in all but one game this season and in three of four vs Seattle.


AJ Brown O 72.5 Rec Yds -114 / Any Time Touchdown +160


The yardage is steep at 72.5 but it's well within his ability. Even if Diggs has an okay game guarding him, he's going to get burned for a deep score at some point in this contest.

Don't sweat last week's 32-yard total, that was a function of gameplan and an opportunity for DeVonta Smith


Bills vs Chiefs Longest TD O 39.5 Yards -105

Do you need more than that? It's under 40, given the entertainment factor it's an auto bet for me. Seven starters in this game have a run or reception of 35+ yards, and three of them are comfortably over fifty yards. That's just a fun bet to root for!



12-4 last week bringing us to 23-13 on the year. I mixed up the McLaurin prop which led to an errant claim of 15-1. My deepest size twelve font apologies to The People and The Gambling Gods.


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