Week 18 NFL Props
Unbelievable. We've reached the end of the regular season already. It's tough to accept, but the only way out is through or whatever so the best thing to do is gamble...right?
Of course. This is our last shot to pad the stats, so let's get into it!
Zay Jones
Over 55.5 Rec Yds -115
75 Rec Yds +180
Zay is in line to receive an extra half million for his offseason plans. All that stands between him and a nice vacation home are 98 yards of NFL gridiron. Doug Pederson strikes me a player's coach who is aware of this and wants to get his guys paid.
Hayden Hurst
Over 3.5 Receptions +110
In the first quarter of their game vs Buffalo, Hurst was looking healthy and heavily involved with three targets on the lone Bengals drive.
Before his injury, he was regularly getting six or more targets in a game. Baltimore allows about 4 receptions per game to the tight end, so it's not the best matchup but I think he still earns seven targets and catches four.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Over 38.5 Rec Yds +110
Over 48.5 Rec Yds +220
Since week 10, nobody is worse at covering the tight end than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Okonkwo is a guy we'll be drafting in the late rounds next year based on how he finished this season.
No tight end has more receptions of 40+ yards, the dude is just an athlete.
He caught three of four targets last week vs Dallas who is 8th best defending the tight end in that same 7-week span. He has an opportunity here even with a shitty quarterback.
DK Metcalf
Over 5.5 Receptions +105
The Rams have struggled to cover alpha WRs and Ramsey isn't that same guy who hopped out of the Brink's truck either. DK caught all eight targets for 127 and a touchdown the last time he saw the Rams secondary.
Geno is motivated, the team is motivated, count on big players making big plays in a big spot.
Patrick Mahomes
350 Pass Yds +200
Mahomes needs 439 yards to set the single-season passing yards record. He may not get all the way there, but he averages over 350 on the road at the Raiders and it would certainly solidify his MVP campaign.
Mahomes pass yds on the road vs Raiders:
295, 443, 348, 406
AJ Dillon
54 Rush Yds +106
I think LaFleur likes to rotate these running backs to keep them as healthy as possible, and we got a large dose of 33 last week.
Should Green Bay beat the Lions and get into the playoffs, there's a decent chance they see the Dallas Cowboys, against whom Aaron Jones excels.
Pound Dillon up the middle a dozen times, win the game and move on.
Derrick Henry
Over 24.5 Carries +130
Over 113.5 Rush Yds +115
This is a do-or-die game for the Titans. Derrick Henry has been a full participant in practice all week. There is no way Mike Vrabel lays his head on the pillow Saturday night without giving Tractorcito the ball at least 25 times. If he gets 25 carries, he's going over 113 yards. The nerds call that "correlation"
Gus Edwards
Over 46.5 Rush Yds +106
This game is most likely going to be played again in a week. If Baltimore wins, they might get a home game for the wild card but that's up to a coin flip. This game is no longer significant to either side compared to the playoff game on the horizon. Nobody's showing anybody anything.
Dobbins has been trying to get back but hasn't been able to rest, I think this is a perfect opportunity.
Now let's take some big swings.
Davante Adams
Over 6.5 Receptions +115
Over 7.5 Receptions +190
Over 8.5 Receptions +345
Over 9.5 Receptions +610
Word around the campfire is Davante wants to have a say in who his next quarterback is. Based on how big his paychecks are, it's quite possible the Raiders give him a seat at the table.
Now, whoever is throwing him the ball currently probably wants to keep him happy.
The best way to do that is to target him 12-18 times.
Stefon Diggs
3 Touchdowns +2900
I think Stef Diggs wants to score three touchdowns in tribute to his friend and I don't think New England can stop him.
Longest TD Over 39.5 Yards
+100
This prop is available in the "game props" section. It's always 39.5 and it's always even money. Here are some games that could be conducive to long touchdowns.
Vikings at Bears
Justin Jefferson has 21 receptions over 20 yards and 7 over 40.
Panthers at Saints
DJ Moore has 17 receptions over 20 yards and 4 over 40 yards this season.
Rashid Shaheed is on fire as of late, he has 6 catches over 20 yards and 4 were over 40.
Chris Olave back from injury has 12 catches of more than 20 yards and 4 of more than 40 yards.
Giants at Eagles
AJ Brown seems extra locked in this week, I could see an early deep shot from Hurts to show he's back. DeVonta Smith has caught a few over 40 as well
That's all these books have the courage to put out for now, tune in to our live stream Wake & Rake on Sunday morning at 8 AM CST where we'll discuss some more player props for the week. Thank you for supporting Patriot Sports, best of luck with your wagers and all your endeavors!
We went 7-10 with couple voided out last week, taking us to 123-128-3 for the year. We absolutely positively must get hot this week.