Updated: Jan 1
Only a couple weeks left, it's time to focus up and finish strong. Week 17 in the NFL is a big one, let's get right to it.
Over 77.5 Rush Yds
This is exactly what we're looking for. An elite RB playing at home in a game they're favored to win. The Colts likely won't put up much of a fight, making for a run game type script for the Giants offense.
Saquon has a strong case for Comeback Player of The Year, a good performance here goes a long way.
Over 72.5 Rush Yds -115
We've been on this the last few weeks with positive results, it's a system play at this point. This number is twenty-five yards higher than we're used to, and it's still a great play. This team is committed to the run like it's 1975.
Over 72.5 Rush Yds -115
In his last three games, Etienne has seen 17, 19, and 22 carries. This week, he gets the Houston Texans aka the RB punching bag of the NFL. Etienne could be a nice candidate for most rush yards on Sunday as well.
Over 57.5 Rec Yds -115
I don't know if you've noticed, but Sam Darnold has been downright competent these days. The Bucs are going to make him throw it whether coach Wilks likes it or not, and Moore is the clear number-one target. He got us 75 last week, he can get us 58 this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Over 7.5 Receptions +115
Over 79.5 Rec Yds -125
It's a large number but we're looking at a 10-target situation for St. Brown this week. This Bears offense can push Detroit enough to keep throwing, and above that, the Lions need this game.
In one-score situations and basically any time they need to make something happen, Goff looks to The Sun God.
I've mostly learned my lesson with playing two different stats, but these correlate too well not to do it.
Over 64.5 Rec Yds -115
107 Rec Yds +275
Mike White is back, and nobody's happier about that than Garret Wilson.
The Seattle defensive front is likely to give White enough time to let routes develop and cut this secondary up for a couple hundred at least.
Getting over 65 with Zach Wilson is an issue, with Mike White it shouldn't be.
Last week, Wilson was down to 30 yards but he's gone over 75 in the four leading up to that.
Over 70.5 Rec Yds -120
Alpha wide receivers have done well against New England this season, the whole "Bill takes away what you do best" law has been on the books for decades, but it's rarely enforced anymore.
The Patriots can scheme up a solid run defense, Teddy is going to have to put the ball in the air to a degree.
It's likely a one-read offense with Tyreek drag routes being the one-read, is it not?
Over 31.5 Rec Yards -115
We're back to Carson Wentz and his shallow depth of target, which favors Curtis Samuel over Terry McLaurin. In the first six weeks of the season, Samuel had a dozen more targets than McLaurin.
I don't trust Carson Wentz to do a whole lot, but the man loves a check-down.
Over 6.5 Receptions -125
This is a must-win game, the coaching staff doesn't have much say in how many times Tom throws the ball. His modus operendi this season has been the short passing game and he loves him some Chris Godwin.
Brady's attempts are set at 41.5, if he throws the ball 45 times at least 10 of those go to Godwin.
He's been known to catch 8 for 63 so let's stick with receptions.
Over 48.5 Rush Yds -110
Over 68.5 Rush Yds +208
Josh Allen runs in big games, it's just how the kid is wired.
In that Dolphins game as soon as the 4th quarter hit and the snow began to fall, he put the team on his back and got the yards no matter what. This is looking like a similar battle between championship contenders.
Over 37.5 Rec Yds -115
Knox has been playing well lately and the Bengals have had trouble with tight ends. Cincinatti since week 9 has allowed over 50 yards per game to tight ends. He's gone over this number in each of his past three games as well.
Over TBD Rec Yds
Lockett is coming back from a broken finger, DK is likely to see a ton of Sauce Gardner, which leaves us with the tight ends for possible value. Fant is a solid player capable of big games, and the Dissly injury opens the door for just such a situation.
The Jets are bottom five the past few weeks defending the tight end. This has been a good offense to back the TE, but the trick has been figuring out which one.
Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Over 32.5 Rec Yds -110
This is based on the Fields injury likely leading to more pass attempts than average and Kmet being his favorite target. If he sees moopportunitiesity than usual, he's likely to go over his projected total. These A.I. bots don't calculate nuance.
Over 0.5 Sacks +100
You're gonna stand there and tell me JJ isn't fired up for these last couple of games?
There is no tomorrow for him, this is it, leave it all on the field, all the cliches...he's getting to Desmond Ridder.
He's got 9.5 this season and just had a three-sack game a couple of weeks ago.
Colts at Giants
First Turnover: Fumble +155
Both the Colts (13) and Giants (9) are top five in fumbles lost, and bottom five in the NFL when it comes to interceptions at just 8 for Indy and 4 for the Giants.
Nobody's showing up to this game looking to air it out, this is an outdoor winter game.
Interception is the favorite fthe or method of first turnover at -170 but the value is clearly on a fumble.
Vikings at Packers
Both Teams Score 24.5 Pts
Longest TD Over 39.5 Yds
This shapes up to be a back-and-forth game between two motivated teams with potent offenses. Kirk has thrown 20 TDs in 9 games vs the Packers, he's always good for 2 or 3, especially this season. Minnesota has allowed 31 per game over the last month, and it's always a one-score game with Minnesota
Highest Scoring Game (Sunday)
Jets at Seahawks +1400
Looking at this slate, we have a lot of important divisional matchups or games where both teams will be looking to play mistake-free football, if not both:
Bears at Lions
Vikings at Packers
Saints at Eagles
Dolphins at Patriots
Or it's a game in which one offense is a complete dud, meaning the favorite would have to carry the total:
Broncos at Chiefs
49ers at Raiders
Cardinals at Falcons
Rams at Chargers
Give me Mike White with nothing to lose playing Geno Smith in a revenge game to light up the scoreboard and bring this thing home.
As always, thank you for supporting Patriot Sports, best of luck with your wagers and all your endeavors! A happy and profitable new year to you and yours.
We had a profitable 7-8 last week, bringing us to 116-118-3 on the season.