Week 14 NFL Props
Updated: Dec 10, 2022
There's been way too much break even bullshit the past few weeks, that ends now. Rather than writing up 20 some props with a dozen winners, let's just talk about the winners.
Over 4.5 Receptions -117
Over 56.5 Rec Yards -135
We've seen Tyler Huntley at the controls before, this kid smashes the 89 button over and over again. The last time Huntley played the Steelers less than a year ago, Andrews caught 8 for 85.
This was no isolated incident. In games played with Huntley, Mark Andrews targets last season: 11, 13, 10, 6, and FIFTEEN.
The Steelers allow almost 6 receptions and 50 yards per game on average. Great spot for Andrews.
Over 48.5 Rec Yards -120
Any Time TD +180
Everybody's getting on on the revenge games lately, why not Hockenson? He was traded midseason from a team on the rise to thier division rival, may as well have slapped him in the face on the way out.
The Lions allow 3.3 touchdowns per game, most in the NFL and 0.7 are TE touchdowns. Seems to me we have a 70% chance of touchdowns . This is just a math problem disguised as a football game.
Over 25.5 Rec Yards -115
65+ Rec Yards +585
Learn how to pronounce it, because this kid looks legit. "Chig" as they're calling him (we can do better than that) is leading the NFL with three receptions over 40 yards. He's 6'3" 238 pounds and quick.
The best part is, Jacksonville is bottom three in defending the slot WR. Okonkwo is athletic enough to move out to the slot and take advantage of matchups there. Very solid the past five weeks, and the Titans played some solid teams.
Over 3.5 Receptions -125
With Hurst out due to a hamstring, his targets will likely be absorbed by the WR group. Tyler Boyd runs the middle routes as the slot receiver, so it's likely his workload increaeses at least to a degree.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Over 7.5 Receptions +105
Over 83.5 Receiving Yards -115
100+ Receiving Yards +110
Remember Hard Knocks, and all the wide receivers The Sun God listed who were drafted before him? Do you think he might be the kind of guy who shows up motivated to play against the team who drafted Justin Jefferson?
Over 7.5 Rec Yards -110
18+ Rec Yds +116
These books can't price Juice correctly. He's so efficient, but he gets so few targets...you can't make the line 22.5 or something crazy because of the risk, so they have to set it at 7.5 which is humorous.
BCB is the QB now and he's going to need help close to the LOS. A guy like Juszczyk is invaluable to a young quarterback, expect the usual 3-4 targets and 20 something receiving yards.
Tampa is top five in sack percentage, Purdy will need to get the ball out quickly to his backfield guys quite a bit.
Over 14.5 Rush Att +105
Over 63.5 Rush Yards -120
The Eagles can win via the run or the pass, it just depends on what you suck at defending. The Giants for sure suck at defending the run, and it could just be that simple.
The Giants allow over five yards per carry, Miles averages five.
If you suck vs the run, Miles is getting his carries.
Green Bay, sucks: 21 carries for Sanders
Houston, sucks: 17 carries for Sanders
Jacksonville, sucks: 27 carries for Sanders, at five yards per.
Over 74.5 Rush Yds -115
98+ Rushing Yards +127
A courtroom may not have been able to humble Deshaun Watson, but a football field sure as fuck did.
It makes too much sense to hand the ball to Nick Chubb here until Watson gets the kinks worked out and flashes again.
Chubb shows up to play the Bengals. In three of his last four games vs Cincy, he's gone over 100 and scored twice. This is Nick Chubb weather, don't act like you didn't see his preseason hype video.
Long Rush Over 12.5 Yds -130
Last week his longest run was 8 yards, but that was the first time since mid-September he failed to hit at least 12 yards on a rush attempt. Given the poor run defense he's facing in the Chargers, it's likely he can break one.
Over 36.5 Pass Attempts -115
Over 22.5 Completions -115
The kid threw it almost 60 times last week vs Minnesota, and now he gets Buffalo. How does he not throw it 45 times? It's not like the Bills will be trying to "slow the game down and keep Mike White off the field", they care not about Mike White and his yolo balls.
He's likely free to fire them at will like us over here with these props. Volume shooters.
The Turf Memorial Play
Seahawks Win All 4 Quarters
We lost a real one this week. Turf, the three-legged Wildlife Manager and very good boy of the Seattle Seahawks has made the road trip to Dog Heaven.
It only seems right the team pays respect by tearing all the stuffing out of the Carolina Panthers til the sqeaky part breaks.
1st quarter points: Seattle 6.8 / Carolina 1.9
2nd quarter points: Seattle 7.2 / Carolina 5.5
3rd quarter points: Seattle 4.4 / Carolina 4.1
4th quarter points: Seattle 8.2 / Carolina 7.7
They'll be running Panthers off the field like Turf chasing geese, total domination.
I'll have some more to discuss on the various live streams over the weekend. As always, thank you for supporting Patriot Sports, best of luck with you wagers and all your endeavors!
12-11 last week (shoutout Bosa for the multi-sack game) brings us to 94-91-3 on the season so far. It's time to get a holiday hot streak going.