Week 13 NFL Props
A wise man once said: "The windshield is bigger than the rearview mirror for a reason". With that in mind, let's get into these prop bets!
AJ Brown
Any Time TD +120
This is really an ideal matchup for an alpha WR like AJB. The Titans run defense is tough, but the secondary is anything but. We also have the returning star player who wants to show the former team they messed up.
DK Metcalf
Over 65.5 Rec Yards -115
Any Time TD +130
The adjustment week is coming soon for DK, whose usage outweighs his results.
Christian Kirk: 91 targets, 7 TDs
Amari Cooper: 93 targets, 7 TDs
AJ Brown: 86 targets, 7 TDs
Jaylen Waddle: 85 targets, 6 TD
DK Metcalf: 92 targets, 4 TDs
George Pickens
Long Rec Over 19.5 Yards -125
Over 46.5 Rec yards -135
Pickens has had a reception of over 22 yards in seven games already this season. In five of those, he easily surpassed his yardage total.
Dionte gets so many targets, he'll command CB1 AJ Terrell's attention. That's where our man strikes.
Atlanta is a top-three matchup allowing 177 yards per game to WR since week six.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Long Rec Over 22.5 Yards -110
Before last week, DPJ had a five-game streak of at least one reception over 26 yards. Watson likes to bomb it down the field last I checked...why not.
Chris Godwin
Over 67.5 Rec Yards -115
Somebody has to catch the ball, and we know it won't be Mike Evans. Marshon Lattimore is coming back to face his firstborn son and historically, that's been bad for Evans.
Chris Godwin is the likely beneficiary of any target funnels.
Pat Freiermuth
Over 47.5 Rec Yards -110
The Steelers running backs are looking rough by now, and receivers have gained some trust and confidence. Young QBs love a pass-catching TE, and that's exactly what Muth is.
His targets the last five: 9, 7, 7, 12...4. Last week was an outlier, seven targets are very probable.
George Kittle
Over 41.5 Rec Yards -130
Any Time TD +155
92+ Rec Yards +550
San Fransico has some injuries to the RBs (what else is new) and Deebo has been limited in practice if he's there at all.
The passing game is the way to get after Miami and the Dolphins really struggle vs tight ends. Big bounce-back opportunity for Kittle.
Austin Ekeler
Over 12.5 Rush Attempts -135
Over 50.5 Rush Yards -120
Ekeler's attempts vs the Raiders last five games: 13,15,16,14. He's gone over 50 yards in all but one of those games.
Nick Chubb
Over 94.5 Rushing Yards -115
Long Rush Over 19.5 Yds -115
Buried beneath all the Watson bullshit is Nick Chubb in the best spot he's seen all season. One of the first things I do each week is to see which RB is playing Houston.
We've got a good one this week. Chubb has failed to go over 19.5 on his longest run just twice all season.
Tyler Allgier
Over 38.5 Rushing Yards -115
Allgier's rushing totals are always low, I'm not sure why. He's in a run-first, second, and third offense. Lately, he's been averaging over 4.9 yards per carry in three of his last four games, we just need the standard 8-10 carries to get there.
Trevor Lawrence
Over 13.5 Rushing Yards -120
Detroit allows the most rushing yards to quarterbacks (even if you remove Justin Fields they're still terrible) and Lawrence has been running lately.
He's cruised over 13.5 in five of his last seven games.
Jalen Hurts
Over 18.5 Completions -110
Hurts has been throwing it in the mid to high 20s and even 30s all season long. If you present him with a low-grade pass defense, he'll throw into it.
Last few games: 28,25,26,27, and 28 pass attempts. I really think the run/pass defensive discrepancy will lead to 30-plus attempts.
Deshaun Watson
Over 26.5 Rushing Yards -110
This guy has been running for 27 reasons for years now, he can run for 27 yards. Seriously though, what else do we expect him to do, have crisp timing with his receivers?
No, plays will break down and he will take off. Running: it's like riding a bike.
Lions v Jaguars
3 Straight Scores Either Team
NO +150
These teams are both in the top half of points scored and points allowed. Unless halftime gets us, it's unlikely either defense can hold three times in a row.
Ravens v Broncos
Highest Scoring Quarter
Fourth +181
I went deep for this one.
Last three games scoring by quarter:
Scored
1st-BAL 4.3 / DEN 2.3
2nd- BAL 4.3 / DEN 5.3
3rd- BAL 2 / DEN 0
4th- BAL 11.7 / DEN 4.3
Allowed:
1st- BAL 0 / DEN 2.3
2nd- BAL 4.3 / DEN 5.7
3rd-BAL 2 / DEN 5.7
4th-BAL 8.3 / DEN 5
Now account for the fact that this Broncos defense absolutely does not care anymore.
Nick Bosa
Over 1.5 Sacks
We're either getting an injured Terron Armstead on the Dolphins offensive line or backup Brandon Shell.
Last week, Armstead left the game with a pectoral injury after the first half. Shell came in to surrender not one, not two, or even three...but four sacks.
This was in one half of play vs the Houston Texans.
Micah Parsons
Over 1.5 Sacks
Micah Parsons doesn't bother with one sack, he likes to go for two. Back-to-back games now with two sacks, he's done it six times this year. This kid is running away with DPOY.
Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed an NFL-most 43 sacks thus far.
Thanks for your support of Patriot Sports, best of luck with your wagers and all you endeavors!
Rough week 12 we went 5-11 bringing us to 82-80-3 on the season. An additional dozen or so bets should be the solution