Week 12 NFL Props
Updated: Nov 27, 2022
As we wake from our tryptophan stupor on this, the weekend after Thanksgiving, we still have a dozen NFL games to bet on. What a time to be alive!
Michael Carter
Over 20.5 Rec Yards -125
Nine receptions on 14 targets for Carter last time he played football with South Florida and Western Kentucky legend with Mike White.
I trust the Jets offense to find themselves in passing-down situations, and I trust Mike White to dump it off to Carter.
Latavius Murray
Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -115
Murray is the last man standing in Denver. Gordon and Edmonds are gone, he got 17 carries last week and posted 49 yards.
Now he's taken all the RB 1 snaps at practice for a week and here comes a team in the Panthers who aren't going to run away and force Denver to pass. Carolina has allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game over the last month.
Jerick McKinnon
Over 20.5 Rec Yards -115
McKinnon wasn't used in the passing game last week, Kelce took all the work. Until then, McKinnon had been cruising over 20 yards on a regular basis, four games in a row actually.
He usually averages about nine yards per catch, so two or three are all we need here. The Chiefs will likely win with ease, making RB involvement high.
Dameon Pierce
Over 64.5 Rushing Yards -125
Yes, the kid had a bad game last week and maybe that dud was the sound of him hitting the rookie wall.
But maybe we are looking at a depressed line for a back who gets all the work facing a team who allows almost 150 every single week.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Over 80.5 Rush Yards -130
100+ Rush Yards +140
Long Rush O 17.5 Yards -110
Wilson joining the Dolphins midseason wasn't a major adjustment for him since he played for McDaniel in SF. We saw how involved Wilson was immediately, now he's coming off a bye and facing a terrible run defense.
Wilson is 10th in the entire league with 5.4 rush yards per attempt, which lines up nicely with Houston's 5.1 yards per attempt allowed.
His longest rushes for the past two weeks were 20 and 28, he's also ventured into the 30s and 40s this season. He runs like Kittle, tackling him is akin to getting into a bar fight.
Kenneth Walker
Long Rush O 16.5 Yds -110
99+ Rush Yards +129
Underutilized running backs is the theme this week, rock-solid logic considering how gassed some of the defensive fronts are by this time of year.
This is Seattle in November, this is Pete Carroll looking at a non-conference opponent who allows 1.7 rushing TDs per game and chomping his spearmint Extra with anticipation.
He can't wait to give this kid the ball 20+ times. Walker is a bit of a hybrid "wear you down" back with elite shiftiness and speed. He breaks that long one eventually.
Pat Freiermuth
Longest Rec O 17.5 Yds -105
Over 43.5 Rec Yards -130
Just about every week, Freiermuth hauls in a 20+ yard reception as he's done in five of the past seven weeks. Shaq Leonard is on the injured reserve, Pickett always looks for his TE, it just makes too much sense.
Jaylen Waddle
100+ Rec Yards +255
125+ Yards +550
It's a bit counterintuitive. The Texans opponents only throw about 23 passes per game because it's so incredibly easy to run the ball against them.
So why play an alt receiving line? Seems crazy.
Seems also like a great opportunity to get your young QB some confidence heading into a playoff run. Also, it's been two games since Waddle cracked 100 and he hasn't gone three in a row all season.
He put up 102 on four catches vs Buffalo, it's not like we need a shootout for Waddle to do his thing.
Tua is favored to have the most passing yards in the early games. I love the odds too much to pass them up.
Derrick Henry
Over 12.5 Rec Yards -110
Not sure what they're thinking here, Derrick Henry catches the ball a little bit these days and the Titans will need to get creative in the passing game.
We're essentially betting on whether or not Henry catches two of his three or four targets.
I say he does.
TJ Watt
Over 1.5 Sacks +200
The Colts are tied with the Bears at 40 for most sacks allowed this season, and it's fucking TJ Watt. He got half a sack vs the Bengals, so I assume this dude is like a shark and now he'll stop at nothing to get more sacks.
DEN/CAR
1st Drive NO Score Parlay -117
This is a weekly play for the Broncos and their opponents, based upon the dichotomy of elite defense and terrible offense.
We just need the Panthers and Russ to come up empty on their first possessions, I could see that happening.
That's all for now, still waiting on some lines to come out so join us on the YouTubes for Wake & Rake Sunday morning at 8:30 ET / 7:30 CST where we'll talk through some more props we love. Thank you for supporting Patriot Sports Unlimited, best of luck with your wagers and all of your endeavors!
We went 11-11 last week but still came out ahead, gotta love prop bets. That takes us to 77-69-3 on the season.