Updated: Nov 20
Week 11 in the NFL, I can't think of a better time to pillage these books. They've had it too good for too long, it's time for the people to take our weekly profit. Let's get into it!
junior.scholastic.com (left to right: The Family Hockenson, TJ Hockenson allegedly)
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -115
This line seems low considering Hockenson's immediate usage upon landing in Minneapolis. In his first game with the Vikings, he put up 70 yards. His last four totals: 48, 80, 70, and 45.
The Bills are tough on tight ends, but they still allow over 44 yards per game on average to the position, and TJ Hockenson is an above-average player.
Over 36.5 Receiving Yards -115
Look, we're all having a tough time accepting that Parris Campbell might be good at football, and it seems the books are as well.
That doesn't make it any less true. If Matt Ryan is starting (and he is) then Campbell will get his work. Last week he put up 76 yards on 7 catches. This week is more likely to resemble that performance than the few before it.
Over 53.5 Yards -115
Post-bye rookie bumps, dude! Haven't you heard? It's the trendiest thing since key bumps and just as exciting. It is said that he who emerges from his rookie bye week, does so a changed and enlightened man.
I say the last time the Jets played New England he went off for 115 yards and the Jets still lost.
Bill probably doesn't care if Garret Wilson gets his little 60 yards receiving.
Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yds -120
He's cleared this number five times in his last eight games and the Bengals are allowing nearly 13 yards per completion. One good seam route and we're home.
When you have a decimated secondary facing a skilled TE with a rookie QB, the odds of Freiermuth being the safety valve are high.
Get it while it's hot, this line could move to 18.5 or even 19.5
Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -110
Did not expect this number to be in the 60s, but that's probably a scare tactic to keep us away.
The Bears have shown they have zero issues giving Montgomery the full workload at running back and sadly, Khalil Herbert is down with the hipness.
Sure, Fields is stealing rush yards but Monty will still get his 15 or so carries and the Falcons give up 127 rushing yards at home on average.
This Bears team gets off the bus and runs for 200 yards.
Over 196.5 Passing Yards +129
Over 1.5 Passing TDs +200
This may seem contradictory to the Montgomery play, but we're talking about 258 yards for a team averaging 382 in their past three games.
Justin Fields has thrown at least two touchdowns in three straight games and now he's playing the worst pass defense he's seen all season. I don't understand why we get +200 but I'll certainly take it.
2 Touchdowns +450
This isn't a deeply analytical play. C Patt is an alpha dog facing his former team and one TD is -120. We can't pay juice on something as random as a touchdown.
Ipso facto, two touchdowns it is. I don't know what ipso facto means, but I do know these two fun facts:
The Bears allow touchdowns on 73% of red zone defenses.
The Bears allow 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game over the last three games.
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -120
Any Time Touchdown +275
Pickens stands to benefit most from Claypool's departure. If you've followed the props articles, you know this isn't his first appearance. Big play WRs will always have a place in my heart and on my card.
Bengals in their past three games are giving up the touchdown 88% of the time opponents cross the 20 and since the injuries to the secondary, the pass defense is a shell of itself.
Over 51.5 Receiving Yards -125
If you saw last week's game, Olave just had some bad luck with good defense. This man took multiple shots that would hospitalize the average human so yeah, he dropped the ball. Anybody would.
The opportunities aren't going anywhere and his lowest yardage game at home this year was 52 yards vs Baltimore.
Olave has gone over 65 yards in five games already, plus he's likely pissed about what could have been in week ten.
Over 6.5 Carries -117
Over 34.5 Rushing Yards -115
Even if you go back to week 8 before they played Justin Fields, Detroit is bottom two allowing rushing yards to quarterbacks. Jones is running about 9 times per game, and the Lions allow 6.3 yards per attempt.
I'm tempted to play this up to 50 yards, but let's not get crazy.
Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -115
Coming out of the bye, we can expect to see a more refined run game with James Robinson much more acclimated. Robinson shouldn't take away from Carter's receiving game at all, and Micheal Carter cruises over this number regularly.
In five of nine games played, Carter has put up 14 or more receiving yards, he had 35 yards on seven targets last time the Jets played New England.
Under 229.5 Passing Yards -115
As you'll read later, this Raiders team is in disarray, to say the least. Carr has been doing better than 230 yards in...oh shit, all of his games it looks like.
That doesn't deter us though because we know what Denver is.
They're the team who gives up 174 through the air on average and less than 160 at home.
Davante is sick and now you want him to put over 100 on Patrick Surtain's kid...at altitude?
I don't know about all that.
Over 1.5 Sacks +500
Crosby is heating up again. He started the season hot with six QB sacks in his first six games, then he had a dry spell but Maxx is back, baby!
Last week, ten tackles and a sack. The last time he played the Broncos, Crosby got Russ to the ground twice.
I have to imagine there's extra motivation to sack a QB as annoying as Russ.
Over 1.5 Sacks +250
Parsons doesn't bother with one sack, it's two or nothing for him. He's scored two sacks in four of nine games played and the Vikings line is a little shaky.
Christian Darrisaw returned to practice from his concussion, but the situation is still questionable. Whether he's facing the recently concussed or the one who backs him up, give me Micah Parsons in a nationally televised game.
1st Drive NO Score Parlay
These bets are in the "game props" section. A bad team vs a good defense is obviously going to be -200 or so to come up empty the first time they possess the ball. However, strategically parlayed, they can be profitable.
Here we have three of the worst 1st quarter offenses matched up with a top half 1st quarter defense.
We've been targeting the Broncos and their opponent all season, let's throw the Panthers in there as well.
3 Straight Scores By Either Team Parlay
CAR @ BAL / SF @ AZ
Over the past three weeks, opponents put an average of four touchdowns on the Panthers and the Cardinals. They're both facing explosive offenses, this seems like a great bet.
Then you have Tucker who can bang a field goal from 60 and possibly save the whole thing.
It's not three straight touchdowns, it's three straight scores of any kind.
We also have halftime on our side, Harbaugh and Shannahan both love to double up in the middle eight minutes.
Raiders at Broncos
Both Teams Score 10 Points
This Denver Broncos defense is historically good.
Unfortunately, this Broncos offense is objectively bad. Due to this discrepancy, the Broncos or their opponents have failed to score 10 points in one-third of their games.
The Raiders locker room is at war with itself, the quarterback is crying at the podium, the star receiver is sick as hell, and a majority of the rest of the talent is out for the year.
Love getting better than 3 to 1 on this bet. It's in Denver, come on.
Cowboys at Vikings
Both Teams Score
25 Points YES +265
30 Points YES +650
Here we've got two of the worst-scoring defenses in the league being somewhat carried by capable offenses, in a climate-controlled environment.
Chicago is lighting it up with Justin Fields, but the defense gives up an average of 25 points per game and getting worse. Over the past three games, Chicago allows 38 points on average.
Atlanta on the other hand gives up over 26 points per game and the offense is good enough. The Falcons are actually 12th in the NFL, scoring 23 points per game.
Great odds on these, in the mix for my favorite bets of the week.
I found 25 plus props I love this week, and we'll discuss the remaining few on the Wake & Rake live stream, Sunday morning at 7:30 CST/8:30 ET.
Thank you for supporting this grassroots operation, best of luck with your wagers and all your endeavors!
4-8 last week brings us to 66-58-3 on the season. Bounce back spot.