TSF RoundTable Week 4
Week 3 was an absolute slobber knocker as we saw the AFC favorites Chiefs and Bills both suffer their first losses of the season, an epic comeback by Minnesota, and even saw the Jacksonville Jaguars knock off the Los Angeles Chargers decisively. Week 4 could offer similar fireworks and our staff is here to discuss some of the burning questions for you!
After 2 dominating performances, including Sunday's game against the Chargers, the Jags are by themselves in first place in the South. What chance do u give them to hold their place and crash the playoffs?
Audra: I think the Jaguars are up to something. The Colts may have beat the chiefs but that doesn't help in their division though it looks good. Houston and Tennessee, eh? That Jags embarrassed the favored Colts and just beat the Chargers. That's worth keeping an eye on. I give them more than a 60% chance. That division is so ugly.
Anthony: I would give the Jags about a 60-65% chance to make the playoffs this season after an impressive first three weeks in 2022. They play in arguably the weakest division in the NFL and through three games look like the best team in the AFC South. Tennessee and Indianapolis have the talent to turn things around so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jacksonville finish 3rd in the division, the reason my percentage isn’t higher, however, their young offense is impressive and the defense has been solid as well I think it’s better than 50/50.
Jimmy: The AFC South is garbage this year. The addition of Matt Ryan couldn't even help the Colts. The Titans can't maintain their momentum from last year. The Texans continue to be trash post-Watson. That being said the Jaguars of all teams are the bright spot. I think they will stay hot for a short while, but eventually, the Titans will make it work and win the South.
Bill: The jags are proving to be a dominant force on both sides of the ball, defense, and offense. Trevor Lawrence showing he’s not a bust. So I believe that they have a pretty good chance of staying atop that division and making the playoffs 70% chance!
Jordan: Pencil it in now. The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking this division and I’m going with a full 100% guarantee. How’s that for an overreaction? Don’t look now but the Jaguars have outscored their last 2 opponents by a total of 62-10. While Trevor Lawrence seems like he has taken a step forward, this Defense is playing out of its mind and leads the NFL with 8 takeaways and 27 points off of turnovers. This week 4 matchup will tell us a lot about this Jacksonville resolve.
Khalil Herbert was a monster on Sunday coming in for the injured David Montgomery. Where do u rank him if Monty misses time?
Audra: Rb17ish. He is headed into a very productive matchup vs the Giants this week. If he is on the waivers grab him!
Anthony: Week 3 against Houston filling in for Montgomery, Herbert turned in a performance with almost 170 total yards and 2 scores. We’ve seen Montgomery carry the load as a feature back a few times in 2021, and in those two games he compiled 245 total yards and a touchdown, and one of those games was against the vaunted Bucs’ run defense. If Montgomery sits in Week 3, Herbert would most likely see an 80+% share of the RB opportunities in a decent matchup, and I would easily rank him in the Top 15.
Jimmy: If Monty misses time, I have Herbert as a top 15 RB. He has proven this year and last year he is a stud when Monty is out. Even getting touches with Monty involved. I have him as a handcuff in the league I own Montgomery as well.
Bill: If David Montgomery misses I think Herbert should be in the top 10. The giants have allowed the 3rd most yards to The RB position setting the bears backfield up for success!
Jordan: Anyone who has listened to our start/sits knows that I have been very loudly banging the drum for Khalil Herbert. The Bears have continued to pound the rock with Monty and he rewarded them handsomely with his week 2 effort. After being injured at the beginning of week 3, the reigns were handed to Herbert and he exploded. For his career, Herbert has never had less than 75 rushing yards in a game he has started. Even if Monty comes back I think Herbert has RB2 upside and if Monty reinjures he’s locked in as an RB1 for the rest of the season.
The Dolphins took out the Bills on Sunday, and nobody on this panel gave them a shot last week. Should Miami be considered the favorite in the AFC?
Audra: Not yet. But they are really hot right now and could make that leap. This week I think could really clarify this. Especially if my predicted upset happens. Then I think yes Dolphins could steal it.
Anthony: No. Miami has put together impressive wins against the Bills and the Ravens, but I would still take both teams for the rest of the season over Miami. In addition, I would put Kansas City over them as well, so Miami would be 4th for me. All 3 teams have the better QB and all 3 have playoff experience. Additionally, Mike McDaniel is in his first year while the coaching staff of KC, Baltimore, and Buffalo have decades of experience among them. I would bet on one of those 3 representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Jimmy: As of right now Miami is the team to beat in the AFC. However, I do think the Bills will eventually win the division and be on pace for the Super Bowl.
Bill: It’s tough to call them a favorite but beating the Bills definitely boosts them in the power rankings. I will say the Bill's offense left a lot of points on the field. Miami seems to be getting behind in the first half then coming out and dominating the second half of their games.
Jordan: Weird way to say the Jaguars! While Miami is a great story so far, it’s hard to call them the favorites. The AFC is very top-heavy and Miami, Buffalo, KC, and Baltimore all could stake their claim as the top team. Miami has already beaten two of those squads. If Tua can come back and is healthy, they have the early advantage as the top dog in the AFC.
Devonta Smith had a huge breakout game in week 3 and has now outscored AJ Brown in consecutive weeks. Has Smith earned must-start status moving forward?
Audra: I'd say so, I'd flex him each week at least. Brown is meant to be the lead receiver in Philly so I wouldn't expect what we just saw every week moving forward.
Anthony: Yes. Unless you’re absolutely loaded, Smith should be an auto-start until proven otherwise at least as a FLEX. Week 1 was rough with zero points, but the former Heisman winner has showcased why he was the Eagles’ first-round pick in 2021. Jalen Hurts has shown this season he can support 2 top-tier WRs and the Eagles look to have one of the league’s best offenses. I’m absolutely starting that type of talent with that situation.
Jimmy: I think Smith has earned must-start status even with AJ Brown involved. Hurts is getting everybody their looks, including Goedert.
Bill: Yes I believe that he is. The Eagle's offense is beasting out this year and I believe that both Brown and smith are starters in fantasy.
Jordan: Devonta Smith was being dropped by people after week 1. The Eagles have one of the best offensive attacks in the NFL and they weren’t just going to disregard their 2021 First Round Heisman winning WR. Smith has now outproduced Brown two weeks in a row. I don’t expect this to be the norm, but I think this is a 1A/1B situation. I’m starting Devonta everywhere I have him.
What is your upset of the week?
Audra: Ravens over Bills
Anthony: Baltimore over Buffalo. Not a huge upset by any means, the Bills are 3-point favorites this week in Baltimore. I think this game has fireworks written all over it, as Jackson and Allen go head to head, whom I imagine would be the Top 2 choices for MVP at the moment. The Ravens’ secondary has been swiss cheese this year while the Bills’ secondary has been bitten by the injury bug. I would hammer the Over, and I think Baltimore comes out on top with a late score.
Jimmy: Upsets of the week are the Raiders earning their first win over the struggling Broncos as well as the Commanders beating the Cowboys. I do think if Dak plays this week, then the Cowboys will win, however.
Bill: I’m gonna go with the Raiders over the Broncos.
Jordan: Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships. Give me the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS shocking the world and taking out the undefeated Eagles this week! DUVALLLLLLLLL!