TSF Round Table Week 6
Week 6 of the NFL season has arrived as we continue to move at breakneck speed through the 2022 season. The fantasy football season doesn’t become real until the first round of bye weeks, and that just so happens to have arrived. The schedule is jam packed this week and will include some key division battles as well as a rematch of 2021s game of the year. We’re back for another round table discussion and joining our staff today are special guests:
Brandon Peebler - The Backyard Blitz - @TheBYblitz
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - @FantasyFirstDown
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - @semtexmex
Breece Hall went off on Sunday and is now ranked 7th overall in PPR formats for the season. How do you expect him to perform the rest of the way?
Brandon Peebler - The BackYard Blitz- Barring injury I see him exceeding that performance. The last two weeks he has increased his role in the offense as far as rushing attempts. If you pair that with the first 3 weeks of his production in the passing game, he has bell cow potential.
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - A lot of Hall’s production has been unsustainable, with Week 5’s 79-yard reception and Joe Flacco’s high volume passing something that can’t be relied on moving forward. Having said that, his first three weeks were spent with the lesser role in a committee with Michael Carter and while Carter continues to steal red zone TDs, Hall continues to produce! He’s clearly taken over the early downs role since then and has been the passing down option all season, this makes him somewhat game-script proof. The main risk to his future production is Zach Wilson. When the Jets inevitably trail, will Wilson still check down to Hall at the same rate as Flacco? Will they continue to run even when chasing the game? Because of these unknowns, his lack of high-end upside and the Jets’ tougher schedule moving forward, he’s my RB16 rest of season, though I bump him up to RB14 in PPR. The best news though, is that he faces the Lions, Jaguars and Seahawks in the fantasy playoffs and that remains the best reason to have Hall on your roster moving forward.
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - The Jets have some stiff competition coming up, so it'll be interesting to see how he does over the next five weeks. The way he’s being used indicates that he should be a top-24 RB every week for the ROS, but Michael Carter vulturing touchdowns could pose a problem for his RB1 campaign. I can see him finishing anywhere between RB5 to RB15.
Jeremiah Kurtz - I expect him to continue to have success and see him ending the season as a top 12 RB
John Mobbs - Breece could very well be a league winner for you, and I'm very excited to have this guy around in years to come. It's apparent OC Mike LaFleur wants his stud rookie involved. Hall’s rushing attempts have increased each consecutive this week from 6 attempts in week one to 18 attempts in week 5, including a TD on the ground each of the last two weeks. But the game changer is his usage through the passing game, as he is currently ranked 5th in targets among fantasy RBs with 27 targets on the year.
Ben Kayser - I am a big believer in Breece Hall and as a fellow Iowa State Cyclone, I got to watch Hall in college a lot. He was an exciting and dynamic running back in college and I fully expect his outing last week to the beginning of a breakout season for Hall. Yes, he will won’t always have huge outings especially sharing touches with Michael Carter but at the very least he will be guaranteed between 15 and 20 fantasy points every game, with his ceiling potentially much higher.
Najee Harris was out snapped by Jaylen Warren against the Bills. Is he the biggest draft bust of the season?
Brandon Peebler - The Back Yard Blitz- The biggest draft bust so far this season has to be Jonathan Taylor. He was a consensus #1 pick in fantasy drafts this year. He only has broken the 100-yard mark once and only 1TD to show for that coveted #1 pick is disaster.
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - This snap count is a little bit deceptive as entering the fourth quarter, Najee led the snap count 34-16 and while Warren was more effective on his touches, for much of the fourth quarter he was playing against backups with a starting offense. This doesn’t mean there’s no reason for concern though. Najee was the only starter pulled in the fourth quarter and while this could simply be injury-proofing one of your best players in the most injury-risky position, it’s equally possible the Steelers wanted to see how the rookie faired given the opportunity. Regardless, they should be impressed by Warren as he looked significantly more explosive and dangerous than Harris. Najee’s biggest asset last season was his extraordinarily high snap count. While that 90%+ number was unsustainable, his usage is dropping dangerously close to a committee approach. Is he the biggest draft bust? At this stage, yes, but there’s still plenty of time for him to improve or, perhaps more likely, for another player to disappoint even more. That’s not what you want to hear when you spent your first round pick on Najee, but that’s the reality we have to accept.
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - He’s got to be at this point in the season. Harris’s top fantasy score this year has been 13.9. The Steelers didn’t work on the line, pieced their team together with superglue, and asked Harris to continue to make chicken soup out of chicken shit.
Jeremiah Kurtz - I called Najee being a bust this season because of the poor QB play, he is probably the biggest bust right along with Cam Akers.
John Mobbs - I drafted Najee, and have already given up hope and sold low. His only upside was his crazy usage a year ago. We all knew the usage wouldn't match last years, but Warren’s usage takes Najee out of the RB1 conversation
Ben Kayser - I don’t think Harris is the biggest bust this season based on where players were taken, that dubious distinction currently resides with Jonathan Taylor. He has already missed one game due to injury, he managed 43 total yards and a fumble to the Titans and outside of week one has wildly underperformed his extremely high ADP, average draft position.
The NFC (B)East has three teams with one loss and a huge showdown between Dallas and Philly this weekend. Who wins this Sunday and who takes the division?
Brandon Peebler - The Back Yard Blitz- The NFC East right now is what we hoped for with the AFC West. While it is a long season and a lot can still happen, Philly looks to be the complete team. Dallas has potential to get there but Philly is showing they can handle adversity and win games even when things aren't perfect. Meanwhile it's hard to predict who the Giants are. Saquan has returned to his superstar form but the defense has its flaws and the last time I checked; Daniel Jones is still behind that offensive line that couldn't block a twitter account. I predicted in the offseason that Philly would win the division and nothing so far is swaying me from that pick.
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - With Dak Prescott likely remaining out for Week 6, it’s easy to say Philly should roll over Cooper Rush and his Dallas crew, but it would be crazy to ignore Rush’s 4-0 record and the team’s impressive ability to graft out wins on the back of a dynamic defense and an improving run game. While the bookmakers opened the game with even odds, Philly have pulled out to 6-point favorites and that seems totally accurate. This is by far the toughest challenge the Cowboys defense has faced this season and I don’t like Rush’s chances throwing towards the likes of James Bradberry and Darius Slay. So I’m going with the bookies and backing a clear win for the Eagles.
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - Big Sunday night showdown, the Eagles bring a top 10 defense and a top 5 offense, along with homefield advantage. The Cowboys are the third-best defense but have a QB problem until Dak gets back. The Eagles should do just enough to pull away with a victory, opening the door for Dak’s big return.
Jeremiah Kurtz - I think the Eagles are the most well rounded team in the East and will win Sunday and take the division title!
John Mobbs - Gotta love a prime time division game. This is a juicy matchup, and the only two times these two meet until the final game of the season. I have the Cowboys winning on the road in front of the most hostile fans in the league. The Dallas defense is scary and as long as Dallas can contain Hurts from hurting them with his legs, there will be no undefeated teams left after 5 weeks.
Ben Kayser - This is a two part answer for me, I think if Dak plays this weekend, then Dallas hands the Eagles their first loss. However, if Dak still isn’t ready to play the Eagles will beat the Cowboys. However, I also believe regardless of the outcome the Eagles will take the division, whether or not they lose this week. They have been very impressive so far this season and I think it will continue, so Fly Eagles Fly.
Carolina finally ended the Matt Rhule experience. Who do you think is the next head coach to receive the boot?
Brandon Peebler - The Back Yard Blitz- There are a few I would keep an eye on. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray just don't seem to be on the same page but they have a team that can compete so i can see them riding it out. However,
I can't say the same thing for coach Ron Rivera and the 1-4 Washington Commanders. The Wentz effect was in full swing in week 5 and that is not going to change. The have a winnable game against the Bears in Week 6, but after that it gets tough with the Packers, Colts, Vikings and Eagles. If they are 2-8 going into week 11, I would fully expect a change to be made if not sooner.
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - Matt Rhule had to go, it’s ridiculous he lasted so long when he showed a total inability to utilize explosive weapons such as Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, making every quarterback he’s worked with look totally useless. So who goes next? There’s two obvious options here. The first is another former Panthers coach in Ron Rivera. The Commanders have had a tough schedule the last few weeks but they’ve also looked pretty poor for the most part. One of the league’s best D-lines (filled with four former 1st rounders) and a high-quality linebacking group has failed to establish any form of surety in defense, leading to weekly concessions of 20+ points, while the offense has gotten worse every time we see them. The other obvious option is Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos have massive talent in the majority of positions but Hackett continues to make questionable decisions. He’s made Russell Wilson look totally incapable and he’s underutilized talented receivers in Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam. The defense, which has remained very effective, won’t be enough against the league’s better teams so unless things change quickly, it’s possible the new owners get impatient for success and try to spark the offense with a new head coach. My other smokies are Kliff Kingsbury and Frank Reich, though you’d have to think they’ve both earned a little time to turn things around.
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - Ron Rivera. The last thing he should be saying is that Wentz is why they are losing. He’s the coach and needs to take accountability for coaching that pitiful defense. I think this is Riverboat Ron’s last stand.
Jeremiah Kurtz - I think it’s a race between Nathaniel Hackett and Josh McDaniel's for who gets fired first!
John Mobbs - Matt Rhule was never that guy and it was apparent when fans stopped showing up. Ownership had to make a business decision, and it was the right decision. As for the next coach on the hot seat? It has to be Frank Reich, right? The Colts have been terrible, ugly and gutless! After missing their chance to punch their ticket to the playoffs in week 17 last season and a disappointing start to this season, Reich’s seat is as hot as any.
Ben Kayser - Nathaniel Hackett is going to be the next one fired. His play calling and game management have been nothing short of terrible. All those weapons on Wilson and somehow he can’t see a wide open KJ Hamler, heck he didn’t even go through all of his reads. The only conclusion I can draw is the play was designed for that receiver to be a decoy, which is why a talented QB ignored all of his progressions. Either that or Hackett and Wilson are not just on different pages of the playbook but perhaps are using different play sheets altogether. This team is too talented to be this bad, and Hackett is clearly in over his head.
Bills vs Chiefs rematch this weekend! Who walks out on top and in control of the one seed in the AFC?
Brandon Peebler - The Back Yard Blitz- Mahomes is Mahomes and Allen is Allen. For me this game will be won on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo has been injured in the secondary and Kansas City has been giving up plays and points to their opponents. Right now, Buffalo looks to be the better overall team. All they need is one more stop and they have the tools to get that stop. It's going to be another shootout but this time, its Allen and the Bills who will come out on top.
Ben Wasley - The Fantasy First Down - In a battle between two of the league’s best offenses, you’d have to think the biggest difference will be the defenses. While the Bills will miss Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, they still have significantly more quality than a Chiefs defense that has conceded 60 points in the last two weeks combined. So surely the Bills are easy favorites right? Well, not quite. The game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium and that makes a huge difference. The Chiefs have been unbeaten at home for over a year and their ravenous home crowd would love to take down the Bills without an overtime controversy. That makes this a far harder decision, but given how close the Raiders went to pulling off a victory last week, I’d have to back the Bills, despite them being on the road.
Justin Herrera - TSS Fantasy - The Bills have a better defense, and without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs and Pat Mahomes might be in trouble this week. I expect the Bills to make more defensive stops and maybe force a turnover. Bill 28, Chiefs 25.
Jeremiah Kurtz - It’s gonna be a good game but I think KC walks out with the Win!
John Mobbs - The last time these two met may have been the best football game I have ever seen. I cannot wait for this game! I think this one can be just as exciting as the one in January. The Chiefs will win this game. Josh Allen may be one of the best in the game but Mahomes is one of a kind. Nobody can deny that these two powerhouses are the best in the AFC, but I think this game will be the stepping stone on Kansas City’s road to collecting that number one seed
Ben Kayser - I think the Bills win this rematch. This is a combination of one of the best offenses and defenses and they have played every single game missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The only scarier thing is what this team will look like when everyone is healthy. As much as I like Mahomes and the Chiefs this isn’t going to be their week, I think they are fine long term but Bills Mafia will be the one celebrating after this game.