Super Bowl Props
This is it, what we've been slowly progressing towards all season long. This is why you lift all them weights, the training and degeneracy are about to pay off because we have a bevy of wagers available to us for this one.
We'll break it up into categories: Game Props, Player Props, Halftime Props, and Everything Else.
Game Props
Both Teams Score 24.5 Points +275
The Chiefs have done it 14 times this season and the Eagles a dozen. With the pace of play plus the speed and talent of these two teams, is 31-27 so crazy? It is not.
Opening Kickoff Touchback: NO +105
This thing has come home nearly every time over the past 20 years, and somehow it's still plus money. As legendary punter/podcaster, Pat McAfee explained numerous times, this is an out-of-the-box football that goes to Canton after the kick, teams have no opportunity to break it in.
Then you have a 23-year-old on the other side who's been laying in bed dreaming of this moment for the past 14 nights in a row. He's going to give it a shot.
First Penalty: False Start +140
Nerves, man.
One-Handed Catch +275
I don't have any metrics here, this just seems like a good time. I love a bet that can win at any given moment and it's perfect for a Super Bowl party to get the energy right.
Successful 2 Point Conversion +200
These are two aggressive teams looking for an edge. The Eagles love to run the hard count in an effort to get the encroachment and cut the distance in half. I wouldn't put it past either coach to go for 2 in a game-winning effort either.
Eagles/Chiefs Double Result +725
I love the double result, it's a great way to inflate the odds of another prop bet and they have value as a stand-alone as well. We know the Eagles are a first-half team. They rank 1st in points and time of possession in the first half of games this season. Over the past 3 games, Philadelphia is averaging over 21 and allowing just 2.3 first-half points.
After that, it's just a matter of Pat Mahomes doing what he does. Kansas City is 4th in 2nd half scoring this season and Philly ranks 15th.
Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
Over 39.5 Pass Attempts -114
This isn't an Isaiah Pacheco game. This is a Patrick Mahomes game and the team will put it in his hands (it being both the ball and the game). I may run this up to 45 attempts.
First INT: Jalen Hurts +100
I suppose Mahomes is the -130 favorite because the books anticipate more pass attempts from KC. However, Mahomes is more accurate than Jalen Hurts and he doesn't have a shoulder injury hindering him. Yes, he has the ankle, but that was weeks ago.
Jalen Hurts has seen his rate of inaccurate throws jump by 15% since the injury. Seems like a great value on -110.
Dallas Goedert
Over 47.5 Rec Yds -120
The Chiefs have good enough cornerback play, but they struggle to defend the short middle of the field. Goedert is projected for 6.5 receptions, so clearly he figures to be in the game plan.
Jerrick McKinnon
Over 20.5 Rec Yards -108
The third time's the charm! Yes, our boy had zero receptions in the divisional round and he didn't exactly show up in the AFC Championship Game, BUT I refuse to believe he's been forgotten. This is a guy who has given Kansas City 31, 52, 70, and even 112 yards receiving in games this year.
If the Eagles' pass rush can get around these mediocre Kansas City tackles, and they will, the short passing game will become necessary. Enter Jerrick McKinnon.
Fastest Ball Carrier:
Marquez Valdez-Scantling +1200
Skyy Moore +800
Game speed and 40 speed aren't the same things but I did look into how fast these skill players run the 40-yard dash. The two fastest players with real opportunities to have the ball in space are these two with their identical 4.37 times.
Quez Watkins comes in at 4.3 and Justin Watson at 4.42 but they're minimal-touch guys unless an injury presents.
Halftime Props
Rhianna doesn't have game logs I can pour over and draw conclusions. These halftime wagers are done completely on vibes, guesswork, and things my daughter told me.
First Song: Diamonds +275
It starts out low and builds, I could see the place going dark, and then bam, spotlight on Rhianna probably decked out in $5M worth of rare minerals. This coincides with my next wager...
First Outfit Color: Silver/Grey +600
We get two colors for one and why wouldn't she wear a dress with diamonds all over it? This is just common sense, people.
Rhianna Shows Cleavage: YES +275
Plus 275? Are they familiar with our girl's discography? Rhianna is a sexually liberated woman and she will not apologize to the patriarchy for it, okayyyyy?
Rhianna Opens Umbrella: YES +275
There's no roof overhead, you're clear to open umbrellas at your leisure.
Jay Z Appears On Stage: YES +125
Jay-Z organizes the halftime show, he's the league's connection to pop culture. The only question here is will Jay-Z be okay as the 2nd most celebrated person on the stage? I think yes. He and Rhianna go way back and he takes a lot of pride in her accomplishments as well.
Everything Else
Andy Reid Punt/Pass/Kick Reference: YES +145
They always find a way.
Andy Reid Says "Cheeseburger" In Post Game: YES +175
How else does the man celebrate? You're essentially getting +175 on the Chiefs to win the game!
Roger Goodell Shown On Screen: UNDER 1.5 times +105
He knows we don't like him. They'll show the commish once at the beginning and not again until it's time to hand over the trophy.
Gronk Makes Kick of Destiny -120
If you bet no, you hate fun.
Best of luck with your wagers and all of your endeavors. Remember, there's no excuse these days to drive impaired or show up with store-bought taco dip.