Welcome back to Truth Serum Football’s Round Table discussion! Week #3 was more of the same, some wild games and more injuries leaving us with lots to talk about, let’s get right to it with a few questions for David from Genesis Sports Cards and Truth Serum Football, The founder of TSF himself Mr. Joey Fickle, Nathan Stults of TSF and Chris Fox of the Fantasy Sports Corporation!
Q1. Who is your upset of the week?
David: I only have 2 games that are considered upsets this week by the spread, the Dolphins over the Bills and the Bucs over the Saints. I don't consider either a true "upset", but according to spreads they are.
Joey: I'll take the Dolphins over Bills who are 3 point dogs. You may see a tough matchup vs the Bills for your Miami RBs, but if you take a closer look, they are allowing a league high 5.9 yards per rush attempt against. Game flows haven't provided much opportunity for opponents so far, but I look for Mike Mcdaniel's Dolphins to establish a strong rushing attack early with the likes of Achane and Mostert.
Nathan: This week my upset alert goes to the Texans. Although Stroud is in his first year as an NFL quarterback, he has a great young supporting cast with Collins and Dell leading the way. The Steelers defense will not give Stroud much time, but if they can get their run game started early, the play action will be very beneficial to Stroud having time to get his passes off.
Chris: I almost called out sick from contributing this week when I saw this question and truthfully would have been justified in doing so because my answer actually makes me sick to say. I will gladly be wrong about this one, but my upset pick for week 4 (choking back my self-disgust) is the Houston Texans over MY Pittsburgh Steelers.
While the front 7 have been absolutely demolishing offensive lines, the Steelers still sit at #31 in ru/yds allowed, #22 vs the pass and #28 in total yards. Bring in Stroud who is torching teams through the air right now (over 8.5 yds/per att over the last 2) with ZERO interceptions and the Steelers could be in trouble. Their saving grace; Stroud has also been sacked a whopping 11 times in the first 3 games. Go Steelers!
Q2. Who is your dark horse Super Bowl pick right now?
David: I mean, if I have to pick a "Dark Horse", I gotta say my Steelers. All the other contenders right now aren't dark horses really, and most of the other teams would be more like Trojan Horses.
Joey: Is Miami a dark horse? I'm obviously curious to see how they fare against their division mate Bills. But for now, it looks like this potent offense can't be slowed. I can make a strong case for the Jaguars & Vikings. I'd be surprised if they aren't mixed in this round Table.
Nathan: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are my dark horse team this year. With close to the whole team having experience going to the Super Bowl with Tom Brady, they are well equipped to make another run toward a title. With the team just needing to replace Brady, Mayfield has done really well leading this team through their first three games. Mayfield has been very efficient in the passing game at a rate of 66.7 percent, and with a defense able to smother opposing offenses to keep games low scoring.
Chris: My dark horse pick for the Superbowl was probably less of one before these last 3 weeks, although still pretty lofty considering the historical significance of “QB regression”. Even after taking that into consideration, this NFC team has a proven Superbowl seasoned coach, a 2022 top 10 QB, and what is shows on paper to be a grossly overly talented squad on both sides of the ball. Their schedule sets-up nicely against both the struggling NFC East and AFC North divisions, a team from both horrendous South divisions and of course their own. You got it? No, no, not that team, the other one (same division though and I have them finishing with the same record). My dark horse contender is the Seattle Seahawks.
Q3. Who ya got? Broncos or Bears?
David: Broncos, despite the shellacking they took last week. The Bears look like a small town high school team right now.
Joey: The Denver Broncos just might help Justin Fields get back on track with what seems to be the cake match-up of the year, but I will stick with the Broncos to pull out the win. They are showing signs of life offensively so I wouldn't be surprised to see this game hit the over.
Nathan: These two teams getting slaughtered the week before and the offenses not moving the ball, this decision is a hard one. I'm choosing the Bears to start clicking in this game and Fields to have a huge day. The Bears will get their first win of the season, but will definitely not be the game of the week.
Chris: After what we saw last week against Miami, the Broncos have absolutely zero choice but to win this game against the bears this week. Obviously there is an argument when Miami puts up over 700 yards of offense (consisting of 350 rush yards) and the Bears strength is running the ball. However, the Bears are NOT the Dolphins by any imagination, no matter how you try and spin it. The Broncos need to make a statement and facing a sub-par, injury riddled defense (4 starting CBs currently on the injury report) is absolutely the place to make it. Give me Jeudy and Sutton as bargain DFS plays and the Broncos by double digits this week in an ugly win.
Q4. Is it time to panic on Trevor Lawrence for fantasy?
David: God I hope not, I have him in about half my leagues, and he was my favorite heading into the season for MVP. I'm going to say no for now, as he started off slow last year as well.
Joey: Don't Panic with Sunshine. This offense will get it together. There have been misfires, dropped passes, and to put it mildly, just weird game flows. Doug Pederson knows what he's doing. He was asked if he took over play calling last week, which he denied. I'd assume that he will if this doesn't self correct soon.
Nathan: Time to panic, no, time to be patient and have a back up plan, yes. Lawrence has the same supporting cast as he did last year but with the addition of Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars are versusing two top ten units against wide receivers, the Falcons and Bills. Once they get past those two teams, expect Lawrence to step up his game and become a top 10 quarterback.
Chris: If you are in a league with me, then it is 100% time to panic on Lawrence…and offer me a trade. It’s week 4 everyone! What you have witnessed this far is simply the pre-season for NFL starters. Lest we forget, the Jags went 3-7 over their first 10 last year, only to finish at 10-9 overall after losing in the Division Championship game. WE went heavy on T-Law for a reason, because we know what he can (and will) do. Hang on to Ridley, hang on to Kirk, hang on to Etienne and let Trevor cook!
Q5. Who do you think ends up with the number 1 pick in the 2024 draft and who do they draft?
David: At this point, it's the Bears and they take Michael Penix. The current team leadership aren't the ones who drafted Fields and will consider this season his last chance. Penix is tearing up every defense he sees right now and looks like a Heisman trophy winner to me.
Joey: The Chicago Bears look like the worst team in football after trading their top pick for DJ Moore. Looks like they may have actually thought this through. Caleb Williams might just replace Justin Fields.
Nathan: The Bears will once again end up with the number one overall pick in the draft but this time they will keep it. I predict that they will use the first pick in the draft to get Caleb Williams from USC. This will give the Bears the ability to trade Fields and make up for their mistake last year not taking Young, and will give the franchise the quarterback of the future.
Chris: If you had asked me about the #1 pick at the beginning of the season (and you did, @ThatEFINshow on YouTube) I would have told you the Arizona Cardinals had it locked up. After (only) 3 weeks of football, I’ll now tell you the Bears are looking at locking it up (again) early!
The biggest plus for the bears is that they play in a division boasting some of the weakest defenses in the game. The bad news of course is that those other 3 teams also are producing BIG offensive output right now. The Bears were supposed to be another one of those teams, they supposedly had “their guy”. If you are a “The” OSU fan (like I am) however, you know history tells a different story (all eyes on Stroud). The biggest improvement we are likely to see from the Bears this year is that they will keep the #1 pick this time and land themselves their next big mistake at QB.
The Chris Fox @ThatEFINshow on IG and Twitter-X. Currently featured on the Fantasy Sports Corporation network via YouTube.
Thanks for reading and drop a question in the comments section and we’ll get to it in next week’s Round Table discussion!