Updated: Jan 21
Super Wild Card Weekend is great and all, but real football fans know Divisional Weekend is where it's at. This isn't a 5,000-word recipe blog so let's get to gambling!
Over 66.5 Rush Yards -130
Most Rush Yds In Divisional Round +475
The Giants are playing inspired football, but they're still giving up 130 on the ground every week at 5 yards per carry on average since week 11. In the first Giants game back in December, Sanders had 144 with 2 TDs and the Eagles won easily. In the recent grudge match, he saw just 11 attempts and they barely survived.
I think Philly learned their lesson. Run the fuckin' ball, dude. Given his circumstance vs the rest of the backs left in the playoffs, I think nearly 5 to 1 are great odds for Miles Sanders to outgain them all.
Over 15.5 Rush Yards -125
Over 57.5 Rec Yards -115
Divisional round against Dallas is just the kind of big game an alpha like Deebo Samuel lives for. Last week, he doubled this rushing total on just 3 attempts. The dude caught 6 passes and turned it into 133 yards last week. The Cowboys pass rush can get to Purdy, prompting short passes to players like our man Deebo.
If they have the balls to put rush + receiving yards up for Deebo, I'm going over the 100 mark, but it's just so hard to tell what kind of production he'll have. Hence the book's cowardice.
Over 33.5 Rec Yards -115
Over 56.5 Rec yards +195
McKinnon has been getting involved in recent weeks. Here are his receiving totals leading up to the week 18 game vs the Raiders: 112, 70, 31, and 52 receiving yards. The Jaguars are allowing nearly 6 receptions per game to running backs, and Pacheco isn't catching many passes. Who knows if the late-round rookie is even trusted in a game like this, perhaps we see more McKinnon than usual.
Over 37.5 Rec Yards -110
With all the injuries to the offensive line, Hayden Hurst may have to stay in to help block and leaving the middle of the field up to the slot receiver. In the one quarter they did play a couple of weeks ago, Boyd was already getting attention, scoring the game's first touchdown.
Over 270.5 Pass Yards +110
Lawrence gained some more confidence last week, and he was making nice progress already with Pederson at the wheel. They're going into Arrowhead for a playoff game, I don't see how you beat or even keep pace with the Chiefs without throwing for 300 yards.
Lawrence had 288 yards last week completing just 59% of his passes which is low, Trevor usually completes well over 60% these days. His pass attempt total is set at 39.5 so clearly, the books anticipate some throwing. Again, how are 300 yards passing not on the to-do list for these guys?
We Only Need One
I enjoy betting props that can get home in a single play like sacks, interceptions, longest reception or rush, etc. Here are some I found this week that I'll be putting a few of my American dollars on:
Quez Watkins Over 20.5 Rec Yards +100
Jamal Agnew Over 5.5 Rec Yards +100
MVS Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards -115
Marvin Jones Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards -110
If any of these guys catch a single ball, it could easily be over these projections. They've all got multiple games with a catch over the respective number, Agnew has even caught a pass in 6 straight. Sure, once it was for 2 yards but I never said the man was perfect.
K. Thibodeaux Over 0.5 Sacks +110
Javon Hargrave Over 0.5 Sacks +150
The Giants allow the most sacks of the teams left and Hargrave is having an incredible season. Since about Thanksgiving, he's been getting sacks in every other game and he didn't have one last time so...you do the math.
Jalen Hurts was hesitant to run last we saw. If he hangs around in the pocket, Thibodeaux will have some chances to get Hurts on the ground. Hurts has been sacked 38 times this season. It's not Justin FIelds bad, but it's top 8.
Check out our live stream on Sunday mornings for the rest of our favorite sides and prop bets. Thank you for supporting Patriot Sports, best of luck with your wagers and all your endeavors!
We went 5-7 last week, which sounds bad, BUT we hit a +300 in that crazy Chargers/Jags game so at least we came out a cheeseburger ahead. We're now 128-135-3 on the season overall