NFL Championship Round Props
We know what we're up against. This is Championship Sunday, which I don't have to tell you, is no time to fuck around. Let's get to it.
Kenneth Gainwell
Over 9.5 Rec Yards -110
The Eagles have the luxury of choosing how they attack on offense since both run and pass are highly effective. The 49ers have the top-run defense in the league, so it's likely we see a lot of pass attempts.
Gainwell had himself a game last week, going over 100 on the ground. Only 1 reception for 9 yards, but that was vs a bad run defense. Philly has a 69% pass rate vs top run defenses and Hurts' pass attempt total is 32.5 which indicates as much. One or two targets and our man has 10 receiving yards.
AJ Brown
Over 70.5 Rec Yds -130
Over 83.5 Rec Yds +108
The most effective way to beat San Francisco's defense on a given down is the deep ball. I think we've seen enough from AJB this season to understand he's an alpha in this regard. Yes, he had 22 yards last week, big deal. That's the likely reason we get a number in the 70s this week.
Prior to his divisional dud, Brown went for 181,103, 97, and 95 yards.
Brandon Aiyuk
Over 47.5 Rec Yds +100
Similar to Brown, Aiyuk had a disappointing divisional round, catching just 2 of his 4 targets for 26 yards. We can't have that with the Super Bowl on the line. He knows that.
Avonte Maddox is back, he was a full go in Friday's practice. It makes the Eagles pass defense overall better, but it also moves CJGJ out of the slot putting our man up against a corner in Maddox, who's coming off a hamstring and hasn't played since Christmas Eve.
Jerick McKinnon
Over 29.5 Rec Yds -110
We're all about bounce-back spots this week. McKinnon had zero targets last week, but that's an outlier based on his previous four games in which he eclipsed 30 yards mostly with ease. With a hobbled Mahomes in the backfield, McKinnon played 78% of snaps, likely based on his pass protection ability vs Pacheco.
With a quarterback who wants to get the ball out quickly, a proven pass-catching back can see significant targets.
Jalen Hurts
Over 21.5 Completions -115
Given the defense he's facing, it would be difficult for Philly to be in position to win this game if Hurts doesn't complete 25 passes. He hasn't gone over 21 a ton this season, only five times but I just can't see him going 19 of 30 or something like that in a game of this magnitude. Hurts is no stranger to the bright lights and he's much healthier than in recent weeks.
CJ Gardner-Johnson
Over 0.5 Interceptions +450
Again, with Maddox returning to the lineup we'll see CJGJ retreat to the safety position where most of his interceptions have come.
Purdy being a 7th-round rookie on the road is arguably the most likely QB to throw an interception, if not second in line and the statistics and status put CJGJ in a great position to be the one who sees the opportunity.
Brandon Graham
Over 0.5 Sacks +125
Hassan Reddick is playing his ass off, but we can't lay -167 that's crazy talk. Brandon Graham is an excellent candidate at plus money based on how many times Purdy has been sacked, and by whom.
It's rarely a defensive tackle who gets Brock Purdy to the ground, it's almost always a linebacker or defensive end. Daron Payne got him once, but other than that it's been players like JJ Watt, Micah Parsons, and Bruce Irvin.
Head To Head Most Rec Yds
Travis Kelce vs Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins +300
Travis Kelce hasn't had a ton of success against this Bengals team, he's gone over 56 yards just once and he's never had more than 5 receptions. Tee Higgins at +300 seems like a solid price to me.
Higgins has played KC twice, recording 35 and 62 yards.
49ers vs Eagles Longest TD
Over 39.5 Yds +100
Hurts has completed a ball of 40 or more yards in 9 different games this season including last week.
Bengals vs Chiefs
Both Teams Over 19.5 Pts -125
Both Teams Over 24.5 Pts +275
This is just looking at past performance. These teams and quarterbacks have played thrice in the past two years, and the scores of those games were 45-10, 34-31, and 27-24.
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Look, there's no way to sugarcoat it, we got crushed last week going 2-12 by far our worst of the season. Let's hit some of these plus signs and bounce back nicely! That takes us to 130-147-3 on the season, still fiscally in the positive thanks to the plus signs.