NCAAF Week 2 - Picks & Previews
written by The Beached Ape
Anthony Richardson led the Gators in week 1 to a critical win over PAC 12 defending champs Utah with 106 rushing yards and 3 TDs. The sophomore QB will be pivotal this season for Florida in their pursuit of returning to prominence in the SEC.
Featured Week 2 Games
Alabama Crimson Tide (1) @ Texas Longhorns, 12:00 EST
Line: Alabama -20.5, 65.5
The Crimson Tide are once again the top-rated team in the nation after losing the Championship game against Georgia last season. All the ‘experts’ are saying that last year was a ‘down year’ for the program and a perfect season is in the cards for them this year.
This matchup features a couple of the best NFL prospects in the draft for next season. LB Will Anderson is currently the consensus #1 pick overall for next year’s draft. He will be facing the top-rated running back in next year’s draft, Bijon Robinson who ran for 71 yards on just 10 carries in week 1. Texas needs to get production from their star RB in this matchup if they have any hope of keeping this game close. It is more likely that Anderson and the Tide will shut down the Longhorn’s best weapon, making it a difficult game for the home fans.
Another concerning note from last season is the way the Longhorns crumbled in close games last season. Particularly the games against Oklahoma and Kansas were difficult to swallow. Collapses such as these are generally owned by the coaching staff more than the players. All signs point to a blowout with BAMA cruising to an easy victory.
Pittsburgh Panthers (17) Vs Tennessee Vols (24), 3:30 EST
Line: Tenn -6, 64.5
Pittsburgh beat West Virginia last week in their home opener but did not look good in doing so. They needed a pick-6 late in the game to complete a comeback in the backyard brawl. The Mountaineers found success in that game by running the ball straight up the middle of the PITT defensive line. That is bad news for a team looking to defend their ACC championship.
The Volunteers present a much more difficult challenge for Pittsburgh this week with their well-balanced offence. They should find success running the ball in this matchup which will also open up opportunities down the field.
The Panthers will need to take multiple shots downfield in order to keep pace with Tennessee which will put them at risk for turnovers. Kedon Slovis is not capable of matching the production of Kenny Pickett last season which will result in the Panthers taking a couple of extra losses this year.
My Pick: Tennessee (-6)
Iowa Hawkeyes Vs Iowa St Cyclones, 4:00 EST
Line: Iowa -3.5, 40
Iowa beat South Dakota St 7-3 last week in what is already being called the worst game of 2022. They won the game without scoring a touchdown and instead got a field goal and two safeties for the 7 points.
Iowa relies on its defence to get turnovers and win games for them. If they cannot win the field position battle, their offence has difficulty gaining enough yards to win games. That is exactly how they beat Iowa St last year in the annual ‘CyHawk’ game for the sixth consecutive year.
I was bullish on Iowa St last season but they cost me money on multiple occasions. Their expectations are lower this year and I am cautiously optimistic they can overdeliver this season. They simply need to stop beating themselves and that starts this week by getting through this came without committing costly turnovers. If the Cyclones can just keep it simple, they should shut down the Iowa offence and win this rivalry game.
My Pick: Cyclones (+3.5)
Florida Gators (12) Vs Kentucky Wildcats (20), 7:00 EST
Line: Florida -6, 51.5
The Florida Gators beat Utah last week because of Anthony Richardson. He was the dominant force in that game and has elevated himself now to the second-rated QB for the NFL draft behind only CJ Stroud of Ohio St. The linemakers are still establishing how high the ceiling is this season for Richardson and the Gators this season, but is safe to assume that level is still rising.
Expectations for Kentucky are also high this season led by their own highly ranked QB Will Levis. They come into the season ranked based on their strong showing last year with a 10-3 record and bowl win over Iowa with a tough SEC schedule.
But I will be backing the Gators this season at least until I see a team capable of stopping Richardson. That combined with the strong home-field advantage in the swamp, makes Florida a difficult assignment for any team.
My Pick: Florida (-6)
BYU Cougars (21) Vs Baylor Bears (9), 10:15 EST
Line: BYU -3.5, 53.5
This game shapes up to be a fantastic matchup between two ranked teams and is not getting the hype it deserves.
Baylor is coming off a tremendous 2021 season going 10-4 ATS, winning the BIG 12 championship game, and taking out Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. Repeating such a strong season as that will be difficult, but they started strong this year as well with a 69-10 win over Albany.
BYU are dark horses this season and could be the Cincinnati of last year. There is a path for the Cougars to make an appearance in the college football playoff if they manage to run the table on their tough schedule. The key games for them this season includes of course Baylor tomorrow, but also Oregon next week, Notre Dame and Arkansas. If they can clear those games, the path is clear for them to lose to Alabama in the playoff.
The game appears too close to call, but I would lean towards BYU and their strong home-field advantage. There are (-3) lines available if you want to get down on the Cougars. But this game has the potential to be a heavyweight slugfest with both teams scoring 27+ and possibly even going into overtime.
My Pick: Over (53.5)
Once again I warn readers not to make too many bets early in the season until we see more games and have a clearer opinion of teams. Enjoy the games and good luck. Get all my Daily Best Bets texted directly to you by subscribing to my DubClub. You can also follow me on Twitter to stay updated on my latest blogs.
CloudBet provides Odds as of writing time.