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Christmas Week NFL Props

Had Rudolph brought some better angles to the group chat, perhaps the herd wouldn't have rejected him so harshly. Maybe he didn't have access to the data sites we do today, but that's best left for the scholars to debate.

We should probably just focus on Week 16 in the NFL.

Curtis Samuel

Over 11.5 Rush Yds -110

The 49ers run defense is elite, it will take some creativity to gain yards. In games where he gets at least one rush attempt, Samuel has gone over 11.5 yards in every game but one. We just need a properly blocked end-around and we're probably home.

Jaylen Warren

Over 24.5 Rush Yards -110

This isn't very scientific at all, it's common sense. It's going to be 4 degrees in Pittsburgh for this game. Jaylen Warren is 5'8" and weighs 215, he's built for this shit. Najee is recovering from the foot injury, who knows what happens when that foot freezes.

Warren has seen 5 or more carries in four games this season and has at least 24 rush yards in all of them.

Dawson Knox

Over 27.5 Rec Yds -110

This one doesn't make a lot of sense, Knox eclipses this number on a regular basis. It could be more overreaction to the weather, but it seems like the easiest pass to complete in bad weather is the short one to a big target.

DJ Moore

75 Rec Yds +205

This is probably a trap, but the odds are too tempting.

Moore is similar to Mike Williams in extremes of the outcome. It's either less than 30 yards or more than 70 for the past few months, so we may as well go for it. Detroit stops the run and allows the pass, Moore averages just over 13 yards per reception, so we need about five.

The weather should be cold with just 10 mph winds, this won't affect the passing game.

Saquon Barkley

Over 24.5 Rec Yds -115

Minnesota since week 7 has allowed the 4th most receiving yards to running backs, and now they get Saquon for Christmas. He's been getting targets, but the yardage has not been there in recent weeks. This Vikings defense allowing 9 yards per reception may be just the correction we're looking for.

Gus Edwards

Over 37.5 Rush Yds -110

What more does the man have to do to get a respectable line? I don't know, but so long as it's under 50 yards it goes in the cart. Gus Edwards brings the lunch pail every single week. A dozen carries, fifty-some yards, and he's on to the next job site.

Tyler Allgeier

Over 57.5 Rush Yds -110

Same thing. He goes over this number week after week and it almost never goes up. Allgeier ran for 139 last week, so they bumped it into the 50s, but that's still not enough for this player and situation.

Most Rush Yds Saturday Games

Derrick Henry +350

We know who this man is and what he does. When Henry plays the Houston Texans, he runs for 200 and multiple scores. Regardless, that's still a pretty wild thing to bet on. A nice way to get good value is to just stack Henry up against all these other bums.

QB Rush Yds Parlay

Josh Allen 71 Yds / Justin Fields 89 Yds


Chicago allows 148.3 rushing yards per game, and we already know what Justin FIelds can do. The forecast for this one is going to be nasty, the passing game will be difficult and both of these quarterbacks can put the team on their backs. It won't be surprising to see them take off and run for some first downs.

Seahawks at Chiefs Game Props

Both Teams Over 19.5 Pts +109

Both Teams Over 24.5 Pts +350

The Chiefs rank 1st in scoring and the Seahawks rank 7th in the league, averaging 29.6 and 25.4 per game respectively. Yes, Seattle is beaten up a bit, but we just saw the Houston Texans hang 24 points on these Chiefs last week.

Saints at Browns Game Props

Will There Be A Scoreless Quarter

YES +101

Three Straight Scores By Either Team

NO -130

Time of 1st Score

Over 8 Minutes +109

This game is going to be brutal as we all know. Freezing temperatures and sustained winds above 20 mph and gusting much higher.

These teams are already 13th and 22nd in scoring, and both will have to favor the run game. It seems likely that 15 minutes of game time can go by without any points scored.

Three unanswered? There may not be three scores in this game, forget about in a row.

It wouldn't be surprising to see these teams need the first quarter to figure out equipment and play calling. Eight minutes of game clock isn't that much when both teams are running the ball.

As always, thank you for your support of Patriot Sports! Best of luck with your wagers and all of your endeavors.

Another break even week last week, sonuvabitch. We went 6-7 but did hit some plus-money props and we're now 109-110-3 on the season. Never been more due. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good week!

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